Orange County Housing Summary: October 17, 2023
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· The active listing inventory in the past couple of
weeks increased by 68 homes, up 3%, and now sits at 2,408. It is the second
lowest October reading since tracking began in 2004, behind the 2,042 reading
in 2021. In September, 37% fewer homes came on the market compared to the
3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,114 less. Last year, there were 3,656 homes on the market, 1,248 more homes, or 52% higher. The
3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,306, or 162% more,
nearly triple.
· Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior
month, decreased by 79 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 6%, and now
totals 1,335, the lowest October reading since 2007. Last year, there were 1,427
pending sales, 7% more than today.
The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,206, or 65% more.
· With the inventory rising and demand
falling, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at
the current buying pace, increased from 50 to 54 days in the past couple
of weeks, its highest level since the start of February. It was 77 days last
year, slower than today.
· For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market
Time increased from 33 to 36 days. This range represents 17% of the active
inventory and 25% of demand.
· For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected
Market Time increased from 31 to 35 days. This range represents 16% of the
active inventory and 25% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million,
the Expected Market Time increased from 36 to 41 days. This range represents 10%
of the active inventory and 14% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5
million, the Expected Market Time increased from 47 to 54 days. This range represents
10% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million,
the Expected Market Time decreased from 59 to 57 days. This range represents 14%
of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
· For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million,
the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 92 to 95 days.
For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time remained
unchanged at 171 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market
Time increased from 260 to 326 days.
· The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account
for 34% of the inventory and 14% of demand.
· Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures
combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.1% of demand. Only four
foreclosures and one short sale are available today in Orange County, with five
total distressed homes on the active market, own one from two weeks ago. Last
year, three distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
· There were 1,647 closed residential resales in September,
18% less than September 2022’s 2,011 closed sales. September marked a 17% drop
compared to August 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.4% for all of
Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.4% of all closed sales, and short
sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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