Orange County Housing Summary: October 3, 2023
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· The active listing inventory in the past couple of
weeks decreased by 13 homes, down 1%, and now sits at 2,340, its lowest reading
since the start of July. It is the second lowest mid-September reading since
tracking began in 2004, with only 161 more homes than 2021, the lowest level by
far. In September, 37% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year
average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,114 less. Last year, there were 3,646 homes on the market, 1,306 more homes, or 56% higher. The 3-year average
before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,400, or 173% more, nearly triple.
· Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior
month, decreased by 60 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now
totals 1,414, the lowest end-of-September reading since 2007. Last year, there
were 1,598 pending sales, 13% more than
today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,262, or 60% more.
· With demand falling faster than the
supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at
the current buying pace, increased from 48 to 50 days in the past couple
of weeks, its highest level since the end of January. It was 68 days last year,
slower than today.
· For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market
Time increased from 30 to 33 days. This range represents 17% of the active
inventory and 25% of demand.
· For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected
Market Time decreased from 33 to 31 days. This range represents 15% of the
active inventory and 25% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million,
the Expected Market Time increased from 35 to 36 days. This range represents 11%
of the active inventory and 15% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5
million, the Expected Market Time increased from 40 to 47 days. This range
represents 10% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.
· For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million,
the Expected Market Time increased from 55 to 59 days. This range represents 14%
of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
· For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million,
the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks decreased from 98 to 92 days.
For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased
from 181 to 171 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market
Time increased from 247 to 260 days.
· The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account
for 33% of the inventory and 14% of demand.
· Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures
combined, comprised only 0.3% of all listings and 0.1% of demand. Only four
foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with six
total distressed homes on the active market, up two from two weeks ago. Last
year, six distressed homes were on the market, identical to today.
· There were 1,979 closed residential resales in August,
9% less than August 2022’s 2,168 closed sales. August marked an 11% rise
compared to July 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.2% for all of
Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and short
sales accounted for 0.2%. That means that 99.6% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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