Orange County Housing Market Summary: May 19, 2020
David Deem
714-997-3486
• The active listing inventory increased by 242 homes in the past two-weeks, up 5%, and now totals 4,867. In the past four-weeks, 38% fewer homes were placed on the market compared to the prior 5-year average; thus, COVID-19 is suppressing the inventory. It was 54% fewer two-weeks ago. Last year, there were 7,413 homes on the market, 2,546 more than today, a 52% difference.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 450 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 38%, and now totals 1,622, the second largest increase of the year. In the past 5-years, demand has dropped an average of 1%. COVID-19’s effect on housing is beginning to diminish. Last year, there were 2,655 pending sales, 64% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 118 days to 90, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days). The drop was due to the surge in demand outpacing the rise in the supply. It was at 84 days last year, slightly better than today.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market with an expected market time of 61 days. This range represents 36% of the active inventory and 53% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 68 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 120 days, a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days).
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 192 to 129 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 229 to 158 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 418 to 368 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 586 to 540 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 18 foreclosure s and 24 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 42 total distressed homes on the active market, down 2 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 63 total distressed homes on the market, slightly more than today.
• There were 1,712 closed residential resales in April, 34% fewer than April 2019’s 2,599 closed sales. This entirely due to COVID-19 suppressing both supply and demand. April marked a 28% drop compared to March 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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