Orange County Housing Summary: January 10, 2023

David Deem

714-997-3486

Dave@DeemTeam.com

·       The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 112 homes, down 4%, and now sits at 2,530, the second lowest level to start the year behind last year. In December, there were 32% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 483 less. Last year, there were 1,100 homes on the market, 1,430 fewer homes, or 57% less. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,506, or 78% more.

·       Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 138 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 13%, and now totals 900, its lowest start to a year since tracking began in 2004. Last year, there were 1,1298 pending sales, 44% more than today. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,349, or 50% more.

·       With demand dropping faster than supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 76 to 84 days in the past couple of weeks. It was 20 days last year, much stronger than today. 

·       For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time increased from 58 to 62 days. This range represents 23% of the active inventory and 32% of demand.

·       For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 66 to 69 days. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.

·       For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 64 to 73 days. This range represents 12% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.

·       For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 64 to 79 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.

·       For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 122 to 117 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 8% of demand.

·       For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 100 to 144 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 483 to 518 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 258 to 227 days.

·       The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 24% of the inventory and 11% of demand.

·       Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.5% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 8 foreclosures and 7 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 15 total distressed homes on the active market, up 1 from two weeks ago. Last year there were 9 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

·       There were 1,427 closed residential resales in November, 44% less than November 2021’s 2,570 closed sales. November marked a 17% decrease compared to October 2022. The sales to list price ratio was 97.5% for all of Orange County. There were no foreclosures and no short sales in November. That means that 100% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity. 

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